This STRAT episode confronts the alarming failure of America’s domestic intelligence system to identify and prevent violent extremism before tragedy strikes. Using the recent Minneapolis Catholic school shooting as a case study, we examine how warning signs were missed, how radicalization pathways continue to manifest online, and why training and intelligence analysis remain dangerously inadequate. The discussion dives into the shooter’s background, the role of hate-fueled ideology, and systemic breakdowns in pre-incident detection. Retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer explains how political pressures, funding misuse, and the hollowing-out of intelligence fusion centers have undermined prevention efforts. He also explores the potential of AI to spot threats online, while stressing the urgent need for trained human expertise, strong regulatory oversight, and a system that rewards prevention—not just prosecutions. This is a sobering look at the consequences of neglecting homeland security’s core mission: keeping Americans safe from preventable attacks.

Takeaways:

·      The Minneapolis Catholic school attack illustrates systemic intelligence failures.

·      Pre-incident indicators are often visible but not acted upon.

·      Domestic extremism often builds through online venting before real-world violence.

·      AI can help detect extremist language, but human expertise is vital.

·      Fusion centers have drifted from their original mission of prevention.

·      Misuse of federal grants undermines effective homeland security operations.

·      Law enforcement incentives reward arrests and convictions but not so much on prevention.

·      Without reform, more tragedies like Minneapolis remain inevitable.

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